基于CNOP方法的台风目标观测研究进展
The Research Progress of the Typhoon Targeted Observations Based on CNOP Method
中文摘要：
简要但系统地介绍了条件非线性最优扰动（CNOP）方法在台风目标观测方面的研究进展。CNOP方法是线性奇异向量（SV）方法在非线性领域的一个拓展。在台风目标观测的研究中，该方法主要用来识别对台风预报有重要影响的敏感区，从而可以在这些敏感区内增加观测，改进初始场以提高预报技巧。首先回顾了CNOP方法在台风目标观测中应用的理论基础，接着阐述了CNOP识别的敏感区受模式分辨率、验证区域的设计、优化时长的选取等因素的影响，并给出了利用观测系统模拟试验（OSSE）和观测系统试验（OSE）对CNOP识别的敏感区有效性检验的结果，进一步评述了将CNOP方法应用于实际天气业务预报中进行敏感区识别的可能性，最后对CNOP方法在台风目标观测中的深入应用进行了总结和讨论。
中文关键词：
条件非线性最优扰动，CNOP，目标观测，台风预报
KeyWords：
conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), targeted observation, typhoon forecast
Abstract：
This paper briefly yet systematically introduces the research progress of the application of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) to typhoon targeted observations. The CNOP is an extension of the singular vector (SV) into the nonlinear region. It has been used to identify sensitive areas in typhoon targeted observations. Assimilation observations in this area are hoped to improve the typhoon forecast largely and this area is called sensitive area in this sense. The theoretic basis of the application of CNOP to typhoon observation is first reviewed. Then the impact of the model resolution, the verification area design and the optimization time period on the CNOP-identified sensitive areas are described. The effectiveness of the CNOP-identified sensitive areas is examined by observation system simulation experiments (OSSE) and observation system experiments (OSE). Finally, the prospect of the application of CNOP method to the operational targeted observations and its further application are discussed and summarized.