基于GFS的飞来峡流域水文集合预报
The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Based on GFS in Feilaixia Basin
中文摘要：
传统水文预报都是确定性的预报，没有充分利用气象预报信息，并且未给出预报的不确定性信息。分析了美国国家环境预报中心（National Centers for Environmental Prediction，NCEP）提供的全球预报（Global Forecast System，GFS）降水数据；然后通过集合预报前处理，将预报降水输入到分布式水文模型；最终给出水文集合预报。通过对比分析，表明采用了降水预报数据的水文集合预报要比传统水文预报准确率高。采用全球天气预报信息进行水文集合预报是发展水文预报的有效途径。
中文关键词：
全球降水预报GFS，水文预报，集合，飞来峡
KeyWords：
GFS, hydrological prediction, ensemble, Feilaixia basin
Abstract：
Traditional hydrological prediction is a type of deterministic prediction, which does not make full use of the weather forecast information, or give forecast uncertainty. This paper analyzed the precipitation hindcast data provided by the Global Forecast System (GFS) in National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP); and then the hindcast data was processed by the ensemble pre-processor in order to drive the hydrological model. Finally, we got the hydrological ensemble prediction. The results show that the hydrological ensemble prediction is better than the traditional ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). The hydrological ensemble prediction on GFS is an effective way of developing hydrological prediction.