南京市短历时暴雨雨型分析
Rainfall Pattern Analysis of Short Duration Rainstorm in Nanjing
中文摘要：
采用南京站1951—2017年分钟降雨资料建立暴雨统计样本，分别利用模糊识别法、芝加哥法和P&C法对南京市历时60、90、120、150和180 min的短历时暴雨过程进行雨型分析，结果表明：过去67年最大日降雨量呈增大趋势，而近30年来暴雨日数也明显增多。3种方法推求出的雨型以单峰型为主，雨峰位置基本处于整场降雨的前1/2分位内，即暴雨过程的前中部。芝加哥法推求的单峰雨型，瞬时雨强先增大、后减小，重现期2 a的各历时累计降雨量在33.26～55.21 mm； P&C法分析显示历时90 min以上的暴雨常出现两个甚至多个雨峰,该方法计算的雨强在时间尺度上的分布更接近实际降雨情况，在业务应用中应根据自身需要选取适合的方法进行雨型分析。
中文关键词：
暴雨，暴雨雨型，降雨历时，雨峰位置
KeyWords：
rainstorm, rainstorm pattern, rainfall duration, rain peak position
Abstract：
The rainfall pattern from 1951 to 2017 in the Nanjing Meteorological Station was analyzed using fuzzy recognition method, Chicago method and Pilgrim & Cordery method. The analysis was based on one-minute-resolution rainstorms that lasted 60, 90, 120, 150 and 180 min. The results indicated an increasing trend of the maximum daily rainfall in the past 67 years. The annual number of rainstorm days obviously increased in the recent 30 years. All the three methods identifed a single-peak rainfall pattern, and the rainfall peak time was usually located in the frst half of the rainfall event, i.e., the front middle of the rainstorm process. The single-peak pattern derived from the Chicago method showed that the instantaneous rain intensity increased followed by a decrease. The accumulated precipitation of rainstorm pattern with return period of 2 year ranged from 33.26 to 55.21 mm. The Pilgrim & Cordery analysis indicated that two or more rainfall peaks often occurred in the rainstorms that lasted over 90 minutes. The accumulated precipitation obtained from the Pilgrim & Cordery method was less than that from the Chicago method. However, compared with other two methods, temporal distribution of rainfall intensity identifed by the Pilgrim & Cordery method was closer to the actual rainfall situation. The suitable method for rainfall pattern analysis should be selected according to our own needs in the business application.