GRAPES全球/区域集合预报系统10年发展回顾及展望

The Review of 10 Years Development of the GRAPES Global/Regional Ensemble Prediction

作者：

陈静中国气象局数值预报中心北京 100081
李晓莉中国气象局数值预报中心北京 100081

中文摘要：

较系统地概述了中国气象局全球/区域集合预报系统及描述模式初值和模式自身不确定性的集合预报扰动技术发展历程，回顾了GRAPES（Global/Regional Assimilation PrEdiction System）全球集合预报的奇异向量初值扰动方法、GRAPES区域集合预报的集合变换卡尔曼滤波初值扰动方法和多尺度混合初值扰动方法、GRAPES全球/区域集合预报模式不确定性的随机物理过程倾向项扰动方法和动能后向散射随机补偿方法等研究成果，介绍了GRAPES全球/区域集合预报业务系统构建参数设置和预报性能，最后分析了GRAPES全球/区域集合预报中存在的问题，展望了未来发展方向。

中文关键词：

GRAPES模式，集合预报，初值扰动，模式扰动，回顾

KeyWords：

GRAPES model, ensemble forecast, initial condition perturbation, model perturbation, review

Abstract：

Global/Regional Assimilation PrEdiction System (GRAPES) is an operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model which has been developed by Chinese scientists since 2000. This paper summarizes the history of development and the key technologies. To represent the uncertainty of initial conditions of GRAPES model, the Singular Vectors (SVs) has been applied to initial condition perturbation method of GRAPES Global Ensemble Prediction System (GRAPES-GEPS) and the ensemble transform of Kalman filter (ETKF) and ETKF-based multi-scale blending have been applied to initial condition perturbation methods of GRAPES Regional Ensemble Prediction System (GRAPES-REPS). To represent the uncertainty of GRAPES model itself, the stochastically perturbed parameterization tendencies (SPPT) and Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEB) have been used to the both of GRAPES-GEPS and REPS. The challenges and future plans of GRAPES-GEPS and -REPS are analyzed.