欧洲业务集合预报系统进展

Overview of the European Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems

作者：

陈超辉国防科技大学气象海洋学院南京 211101
王勇奥地利气象局奥地利 Vienna 1190
杜钧美国国家海洋大气局国家环境预报中心马里兰 20740
何宏让国防科技大学气象海洋学院南京 211101
刘宇迪国防科技大学气象海洋学院南京 211101
姜勇强国防科技大学气象海洋学院南京 211101

中文摘要：

由于大气初值与数值模式中物理过程存在不确定性等客观事实，集合预报无疑代表着数值天气预报未来前进与发展的方向，它标志着天气预报的预报范式转变，即用户不仅可以得到未来大气状态的单一现实，还可得到未来大气可能出现的一系列场景。文中扼要地梳理了欧洲全球业务集合预报与有限区域模式高分辨业务集合预报的研究动态与技术发展、基本问题及其未来最新发展方向，包括：1）欧洲中期天气预报中心的业务集合预报系统发展沿革及概况；2）欧洲国家主要业务高分辨率集合预报系统概况；3）当前业务集合预报存在的问题、挑战及未来前进的方向。文中除了关注欧洲中期天气预报中心的集合预报应用，还梳理了目前欧洲高分辨业务集合预报取得的成就，以引起有关研究人员的注意。总之，借鉴欧洲业务集合预报的发展思路，不仅有助于集合预报理论创新，还对发展集合预报业务有重要指导意义。

中文关键词：

业务集合预报，概率预报，高分辨率集合预报，不确定性，对流可分辨尺度集合预报

KeyWords：

operational ensemble prediction, probability forecast, high-resolution ensemble forecast, uncertainty, convection-permitting ensemble forecast

Abstract：

Due to the uncertainties in both initial condition and model physics, ensemble prediction has been becoming the norm of numerical weather prediction as supercomputers become increasingly powerful. It is a paradigm shift in weather prediction practice from a single forecast to an ensemble of forecasts, which allow forecasters and users see a range of possibilities instead of a single deterministic one. This paper briefly reviews the development of both global and regional ensemble prediction systems (EPS) in Europe, including their current status, issues and future plans. Specifically, the topics are (1) operational global EPS at ECMWF; (2) operational high resolution regional EPS in various European countries; and (3) a discussion about related issues, challenges and future plans. Since the storm scale is a future trend of EPS development, we have paid a particular attention to the development and application of high-resolution EPS besides the global ECMWF EPS. It is our hope that this review will not only shed lights on scientific and technical aspects of EPS development but also its operational application.