集合敏感性在预报误差及可预报性研究中的应用进展综述

Research Progress in Study of Forecast Errors and Predictability Based on Ensemble Sensitivity

作者：

王毅国家气象中心北京 100081
代刊国家气象中心，中国气象局北京 100081
张晓美中国气象局公共气象服务中心北京 100081
唐健国家气象中心北京 100081
周菲凡中国科学院大气物理研究所云降水物理与强风暴实验室北京 100029
马杰国家气象中心北京 100081

中文摘要：

研究大气的可预报性和预报误差产生的原因，对于改进数值预报,提升业务预报技巧具有重要意义。集合敏感性基于具有流依赖特性的集合预报，通过建立预报与初始场或前期预报大气状态之间的统计关系，为揭示与预报对象可预报性相关的动力学特征及理解预报误差来源和传播机制提供了一种新方法。同时，介绍了集合敏感性的定义和度量，并综述了其针对典型天气系统和高影响天气事件研究的进展，并讨论了该方法的优势和局限性。

中文关键词：

集合敏感性，可预报性，集合预报

KeyWords：

ensemble sensitivity, predictability, ensemble forecast

Abstract：

Research on the atmospheric predictability and causes of forecast errors has important significance to improvements of numerical weather prediction and operational forecast skill. Based on flow-dependent ensemble, ensemble sensitivity determines relationships between forecasts and initial or early forecast atmospheric conditions. It provides a new methodology to reveal dynamic features relevant to the predictability of the forecast variable of interest and to understand origin of forecast errors with its propagation. This paper introduces the definition and measures of ensemble sensitivity and then reviews its application progress for typical weather systems and high-impact weather. Finally, the strength and limitation of the ensemble sensitivity is discussed.