面向预报员的精细化数值预报产品应用培训需求研究
Research on the Forecaster Training Needs of Using Refined Numerical Weather Forecast
中文摘要：
伴随高分辨率数值预报、集合预报和人工智能等关键技术的发展，现代气象预报业务已进入精细化、无缝隙、数字化的智能网格预报时代。为提升广大预报员对数值预报的应用水平，提高预报服务综合效果，从精细化网格预报业务发展对预报员能力素养的新要求和预报员能力现状两方面开展数值预报应用的培训需求研究。结果显示，预报员在综合运用多源资料提升精细化数值预报应用水平方面具有迫切培训需求，在培训数值预报技术进展、产品特点、应用方法的基础上，培训需求呈现出向研究型业务和针对性服务发展的趋势。从数值预报应用培训的内容来看，最大培训需求集中在数值预报新技术原理、产品精细化评估和订正、多源资料综合应用策略三个方面。对预报员分层次进行分析，显示新预报员需求较广泛，相对侧重数值预报基础应用，骨干预报员侧重预报产品评估和订正方法等实用技术，首席预报员相对侧重研究性。最后对开发面向预报员的分层分类数值预报应用培训课程提出了建议，为教学策划和课程设计提供参考。
中文关键词：
数值预报，培训需求，精细化网格预报，预报员培训
KeyWords：
numerical weather prediction, training need, refined grid forecast, forecaster training
Abstract：
With the development of high-resolution numerical model, ensemble forecast and using of artificial intelligence, modern weather forecast has entered the era of fine, seamless and digital intelligent grid forecast. In order to study the training needs of using numerical prediction, this paper analyzes the operational requirements, the current ability of forecasters, and the gap between them. The results show that in the refined wisdom grid forecast, it is critical for forecasters to improve the skills of using numerical forecast and multi-source meteorological information. On the basis of understanding the basics of new numerical technologies and their products, the training needs on operation-oriented research and targeted services are also shown. The most required training on this aspect includes the principle of new numerical technologies, their evaluation and correction, and the comprehensive strategy of using multi-source meteorological information. The training needs vary with the level of forecasters, the new forecasters have relatively basic needs, the senior forecasters focus more on practical technologies, and the chief forecasters concern more about research. In the end, suggestions are made to give support to curriculum design on the numerical weather prediction.