我国气温网格预报检验及客观订正方法研究进展
Research Progress on Objective Verification and Correction Methods for Grid Temperature Forecast
中文摘要：
中国气象局自2014年启动无缝隙精细化网格天气预报业务，高分辨率的智能网格预报已成为天气预报目前的主推业务和未来的发展方向。近年来，随着数值模式统计后处理技术的飞速发展，气温网格预报质量稳步提升。本文在总结现有气温网格预报精细化检验评估方法的基础上，系统梳理了单模式订正、多模式集成释用和大数据人工智能等数值模式释用技术在气温网格预报客观订正领域的最新进展，阐明了不同方法在气温网格预报领域的优势和劣势。在当前人工智能、大数据、云计算等新型信息技术快速发展的背景下，未来气温网格预报需要吸纳更加多源的前沿研究成果，充分挖掘数值模式内在预报信息，使得预报向更加智慧化方向迈进。
中文关键词：
网格预报，数值模式，检验评估，客观订正
KeyWords：
gridded forecasting, numerical model, verification and evaluation, objective correction
Abstract：
High-resolution intelligent grid forecast has become the main operational work and the development direction of future weather forecast since China Meteorological Administration launched the seamless fine grid weather forecast service in 2014. To date, with the rapid development of numerical model statistical post-processing technology, the quality of grid temperature forecast has been steadily improved. On the basis of summarizing the existing fine-scale testing and evaluation methods for grid temperature forecast, this paper systematically sorts out the latest progress of numerical model interpretation techniques, such as single model correction, multi-model integrated interpretation and big data artificial intelligence, in the field of objective correction of grid temperature forecast. The advantages and disadvantages of different methods in the field of grid temperature forecast are elucidated. In the context of the current rapid development of new information technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and cloud computing, grid temperature forecast needs to harness more cutting-edge research results from multiple sources, and fully utilize the inherent forecast information of numerical models for a smarter forecast in the future.