运城市极端气温变化特征及不同重现期气温估计
Characteristics of Extreme Temperature Variation and Temperature Estimates during Different Return Periods in Yuncheng City
中文摘要：
利用运城市1961—2020年逐月最高气温、最低气温资料，采用皮尔逊—Ⅲ分布、耿贝尔分布和对数正态分布3种方法分别计算，得到运城市极端高温和极端低温各重现期下的极值，并采用拟合标准差、拟合相对偏差和柯尔莫洛夫检验对3种拟合进行优度检验，结果表明：近60年，运城市年平均最高、最低气温和极端最高、最低气温均呈增加趋势，且低温的增加趋势明显大于高温；年极端最高气温、最低气温主要集中在6—7月和12月下旬—次年2月上旬；运城市极端最高气温和极端最低气温的对数正态分布拟合效果最优，而用耿贝尔分布拟合的极端最高气温偏大，用耿贝尔分布拟合的极端最低气温整体偏低。
中文关键词：
极端气温，重现期，拟合优度检验
KeyWords：
extreme temperature, return period, goodness-of-fit test
Abstract：
Based on the monthly maximum temperature and minimum temperature data in Yuncheng City from 1961 to 2020, the annual extreme values of maximum temperature and minimum temperature in different return periods were fitted and calculated by Pearson type-Ⅲ, Gumbel and Log-normal distribution methods. Three measures of fitting standard deviation, fitting relative deviation and Kolmogorov test were also used to give a comparative superiority evaluation. The results show that for nearly 60 years, both the mean maximum (minimum) temperature and extreme maximum (minimum) temperature in Yuncheng City show an increasing trend, and the increasing trend of the low temperature is significantly greater than that of the high temperature; the annual average extreme maximum temperature and minimum temperature are mainly concentrated from June to July and late December to early February, respectively. The best lognormal distribution fitting effects are identified in annual extreme maximum temperature and extreme minimum temperature in Yuncheng City, while the extreme maximum (minimum) temperature fitted by Gumbel distribution tends to be higher (lower) than the observed data.