快速更新同化预报的关键技术综述

An Overview of the Key Techniques in Rapid Refresh Assimilation and Forecast

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作者:

  • 陈葆德 中国气象局上海台风研究所 上海 200030
  • 王晓峰 中国气象局上海台风研究所 上海 200030
  • 李泓 中国气象局上海台风研究所 上海 200030
  • 张蕾 中国气象局上海台风研究所 上海 200030

中文摘要:

快速更新同化预报技术(简称RUC或RR)是近来针对短时临近预报应用发展的数值预报技术。回顾了国内外的发展历程及现状,介绍了关键的相关技术,主要包括:(1)绝热与非绝热数字初始化;(2)冷、暖和热启动技术与循环同化;(3)云分析技术;(4)近地面资料同化等,并阐述了快速更新同化预报技术未来的发展。

中文关键词:

快速更新同化预报,短时临近预报,数值天气预报,资料同化

KeyWords:

rapid refresh assimilation and forecast, nowcasting, numerical weather prediction, data assimilation

Abstract:

High-frequency assimilation and forecast (Rapid Update Cycle, RUC or Rapid Refresh, RR) have been developed for numerical weather prediction of short-range forecasting in recent years. In this paper, the history and status of RUC (or RR) are reviewed. Several relevant key issues are addressed, including: 1) adiabatic digital filter initialization (DFI) and diabatic digital filter initialization (DDFI); 2) cold start、warm start and hot start initialization techniques; 3) cloud analysis technique; 4) issues for assimilating near-surface observations. Finally, the challenges, opportunities and future directions for rapid refresh systems are discussed.

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