西北地区干旱对农业影响的评估方法——以甘肃省春玉米为例
The Research of the Assessment Method of Drought for the Impact on Agriculture in the Northwest——The Spring Corn in Gansu Province
中文摘要：
在分析西北地区降水的变化特点以及干旱对玉米产量影响的基础上，利用1985—2007年甘肃省春玉米产量资料、CI指数和相对应的降水、需水资料，提出了干旱对玉米产量影响的定量评估方法。该方法以DI指数作为干旱评估指标，综合考虑了相对气象减产率和DI累积指标的关系，并进行了实证分析，取得了比较可信的评估结果，为科学、定量地分析西北地区干旱对农业生产的影响提供了可借鉴的评估方法。
中文关键词：
西北地区，干旱，春玉米，影响，评估方法
KeyWords：
the Northwest, drought, spring corn, influence, evaluation method
Abstract：
The changing characteristics and trends of the precipitation of the Northwest Territories, as well as the impact of drought on agriculture was analyzed. Based on these, using the data of spring corn yield, CI index and corresponding to the precipitation, water demand from 1985 to 2007 in Gansu Province, the quantitative evaluation method of the influence of drought on corn yield was discussed in the paper. With the help of this method, DI index as drought assessment indicators was proposed. The relationship between the relative meteorological production rate and cumulate DI index were comprehensively considered, of which was made a positive analysis, so as to obtain a more reliable evaluation result. Therefore, the paper put forward a reference assessment method, in order to make a scientific analysis and a quantitative assessment of the influence of drought on agricultural production.