光伏发电潜力分析——以山西省为例
The Analysis of PV Electricity Generation Potential—A Case Study in Shanxi
中文摘要：
科学、合理的光伏发电潜力评价一方面需要精确的量化，另一方面需要与电力应用场景结合，这样的成果无论对政府政策制定，还是企业投资决策都非常有价值。本文以山西省为例，围绕光伏发电年等效利用小时数、理论装机量、土地利用率、理论发电量几个关键指标，利用空间分析和空间统计方法，考虑地理条件约束，建立了一套光伏发电潜力评价方案。结果表明：山西省中部和北部地区光伏发电条件较好，年等效利用小时数优于或约等于山西省近年光伏发电平均利用小时数；全省光伏发电土地利用率一般，在3%～9%，电站宏观选址需要在丘陵地区“精挑细选”；北部地区光伏发电潜力很大，如进行充分开发，其光伏年总发电量可达到全省2017年总用电量的1.2倍。
中文关键词：
光伏，发电潜力，山西，理论发电量
KeyWords：
photovoltaic (PV), electricity generation potential, Shanxi Province, theoretical power generation
Abstract：
Scientifc and reasonable evaluation of potential photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation needs to be quantifed and combined with application for it to be useful for the creation of government policy and enterprise investment decisions. Using Shanxi Province as an example, and focusing on PV availability hours, technical PV capacity, land utilization rate and theoretical electricity generation, and considering geographical constraints, this paper establishes a method to evaluate PV electricity generation potential using spatial statistics and analysis. The results show that the conditions of PV electricity generation in central and northern of Shanxi are better than in other areas in the province, and the PV availability hours of these places are equal or better than the actual PV generation hours in Shanxi of recent years. The results also showed the land utilization rate of PV in the Shanxi is generally between 3% and 9%, and the macro site requires careful selection in hilly areas. We found that the northern region of Shanxi has great potential for PV electricity generation and if fully utilized, the annual electricity generation could reach 1.2 times the total power consumption of the Shanxi in 2017.