测风塔风速插补对风功率密度误差的影响分析
Analysis of the Influence of Wind Speed Interpolation on Wind Power Density Error from Wind Tower Data
中文摘要：
在风资源评估过程中，针对缺测风速，一般采用数理统计方法（比值法、线性回归等）进行插补，使之达到要求，而与之对应的风功率密度，目前未进行检验。为验证风速插补后对应的风功率精度，选取湖北省内2座测风塔观测资料分别代表风速观测“大风年”（2013年）及“小风年”（2014年）状况，利用线性回归方法及比值法，将测风塔有观测数据的8月作为缺测时段进行插补，结果发现：风速实测值与推算值变化趋势一致且达到要求。而与风速对应的风功率密度，1#测风塔实测值与推算值的平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）超过150%，相对均方根误差（rRMSE）超过90%，平均偏差（MBE）在－15.5～－10 W/m2，模拟值较实测值明显偏小，2#测风塔风功率密度实测值与推算值的MAPE超过100%，rRMSE超过70%，MBE在1.9～6.3 W/m2。因此，在对风速缺测插补过程中，会造成平均风速拟合误差不大，而风功率密度差异较大的现象，且在“大风年”插补风速对应的风功率密度较实测值偏小，“小风年”插补风速对应的风功率密度较实测值偏大。
中文关键词：
比值法，线性回归，风速，风功率密度
KeyWords：
ratio method, linear regression, wind speed, wind power density
Abstract：
Wind assessments are conducted using mathematical statistics (ratio method, linear regression, etc.) that carry out interpolation corrections and test the e?ects to achieve the revised requirements. However, wind power density is not presently tested. Without wind density, the wind power assessment may impact the modelled relationships between windspeed and wind power. In order to verify the situation, we selected two wind towers within the Hubei Province, and used observation data of wind speed from a “high wind speed year” (2013) and a “low wind speed year” (2014). Data from missing periods was flled using interpolation, linear regression and ratio methods. The wind speed data from August was analyzed. The results showed that for the changes in wind speed trends, measured and calculated values were consistent with the interpolation correction. The measured wind power density and wind speed was in agreement with the calculated values. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the measured values from the tower 1 was greater than 150%; the relative root mean square error (rRMSE) was more than 90%; the average deviation (MBE) was ?15.5 ~ ?10 W/m2, indicating that the simulated value was smaller than the measured value. The MAPE, rRMSE and MBE of the measured values from the tower 2 were 100%, 70% and 1.9 ~ 6.3 W/m2, respectively, indicating that the simulated value was larger than the measured value.