深圳多年降水变化规律和雨岛效应分析

Multi-Year Variation of Precipitation and Rain Island Effect in Shenzhen

作者：

陈申鹏深圳市气象局，深圳市国家气候观象台深圳 518040

中文摘要：

利用深圳及周边城市的降水、气温等气象观测数据，分析了深圳多年降水变化和雨岛分布特征及其相关的影响因素。结果表明：深圳年雨量呈现振荡变化，其中21世纪00年代年际变化最大，主要与云凝结核浓度变化有关；城市化导致深圳及周边城市降水强度增加，不单纯是热力因素的结果，还有其他因素的作用；城市化和地形共同决定了深圳的雨岛分布格局，前汛期主要受地形影响，后汛期主要受城市化影响，非汛期同时受城市化和地形影响；暴雨是深圳降雨年际变化的决定性因素，以及雨岛分布的主要贡献者。

中文关键词：

城市化，城市热岛，雨岛，云凝结核

KeyWords：

urbanization, urban heat island, rain island, cloud condensation nodule

Abstract：

Based on the meteorological observation data such as precipitation and temperature in Shenzhen and surrounding cities, the characteristics of precipitation multi-year variation and the distribution of rain island in Shenzhen are analyzed, as well as the related influencing factors. The results are shown as follows. The annual precipitation in Shenzhen shows an oscillating variation, especially the inter-annual fluctuation in the 2000s is the largest, mainly due to the cloud condensation nodule concentration variation. Under the background of urbanization, it shows a certain increasing trend of the rainfall intensity in Shenzhen and surrounding cities, due to thermodynamic factor and other factors. Urbanization and topography together determine the rain island distribution pattern in Shenzhen. The rain island distribution is mainly affected by topography in the early stage of the flood season; that in later flood season is mainly affected by urbanization; that in non-flood season is affected both by urbanization and topography. In Shenzhen, heavy rain is the determining factor of the inter-annual precipitation variation and the rain island distribution.