气候变化对大湾区人群健康影响研究进展
Research Advances in Climate Change Impacts on Human Health in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area
作者：
- 杜尧东 广东省气候中心 广州 510640
- 段海来 广东省气候中心 广州 510640
- 刘畅 广东省气候中心 广州 510640
- 罗晓玲 广东省气候中心 广州 510640
中文摘要：
通过查阅国内外相关文献，从温度变化、热浪、寒潮、空气质量下降、气候敏感型疾病、新发传染病等方面综述了气候变化对粤港澳大湾区人体健康的影响。结果表明，日平均温度高于或低于温度阈值（广州为26.4 ℃，香港为 28.2 ℃）均能增加湾区居民死亡的风险，高于温度阈值的热效应急促短暂，低于温度阈值的冷效应缓慢持久，老年人对 温度变化更为脆弱。热浪易引起居民中暑死亡、失眠、疲劳、疾病加重等，而且以夏季早期的热浪影响较为明显。2008 年低温雨雪冰冻期间，居民非意外死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡的风险明显增加。霾日数与心血管疾病门诊病例数、O3浓度 与心血管疾病住院病人数有明显的正相关。疟疾向山区高海拔、登革热终年流行区向高纬度蔓延。SARS和大气环境变 量的涨落有显著的相关性。低温高湿有利于禽流感的发生和传播。未来气候变化将引起气温和降水格局的改变，造成极端气候事件频发，自然生态系统恶化或病原体孳生，直接或间接加重人群健康风险，未来人口老龄化也可以导致更大的 脆弱人群。未来粤港澳大湾区应开展跨学科研究，揭示气候变化健康影响机制，适时发布人体健康气候预警，有效保护敏感人群，加强数据共享和部门合作，以降低气候变化不利影响，保障人群健康。
中文关键词：
气候变化，人体健康，影响评估，粤港澳大湾区
KeyWords：
climate change, human health, impact assessment, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area
Abstract：
The impacts of climate change on human health were reviewed for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area. This review focused mainly on temperature variations, heat waves, cold spell, air quality degradation, climate sensitive diseases and emerging infectious diseases. The results showed that daily mean air temperature that is above or below the threshold (26.4 ℃ in Guangzhou, 28.2 ℃ in Hong Kong) could both increase the risk of death especially for the elderly who are more vulnerable to temperature variations in the Greater Bay Area. The effect of above-threshold heat on mortality was rapid and transient, whereas the effect of below-threshold cold on mortality was slow and persistent. Heat waves could cause insomnia, fatigue, clinical exacerbation, or death from heatstroke, and the negative influence of heat wave was more obvious in early summer. During a cold spell period in 2008, the risk of non-accidental deaths and respiratory disease deaths significantly increased. Both number of hazy days and ozone concentrations had significant positive correlations with the number of patients with cardiovascular diseases. Malaria was spread to high altitudes in mountainous areas and year-round epidemic zone of dengue fever was extended to high latitudes. The variations of the SARS epidemics were correlated remarkably with atmospheric elements. Low temperature and high humidity were conducive to the occurrence and transmission of avian influenza. In the future, temperature and precipitation patterns are likely to change under the context of climate change, which may result in more frequent extreme climate events and deteriorated natural ecosystems or multiplied pathogens. Therefore, risk of human health may be directly or indirectly aggravated. In addition, more vulnerable people emerge as a result of aging process. To mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on human health, interdisciplinary research should be done in the Greater Bay Area. Specifically, we should aim to reveal the health impact mechanism of climate change, conduct timely climate warning for human health, effectively protect vulnerable groups, and strengthen data sharing and sector cooperation.