一次燕山南麓局地大暴雨的成因分析及数值预报检验
The Cause and Numerical Prediction of a Strong Convective Weather Process at the Southern Foot of Yanshan
中文摘要：
利用常规观测资料、区域自动站、卫星云图及多普勒天气雷达资料，对2013年6月28—29日发生在秦皇岛地区一次局地大暴雨过程进行了综合分析，并从环流形势、影响系统、降水强度和落区等方面对多种数值预报进行检验。结果表明：中尺度对流复合体和线状回波中的超级单体，造成了北部山区的短时强降水，强降水区域位于黑体亮度温度TBB度最大处，燕山山脉地形抬升作用和中尺度风场辐合是本次过程的触发机制。多种数值模式产品对暴雨有一定的预报能力，但强降水中心都偏北，且未能体现出大于100 mm的大暴雨区域。对产生暴雨天气影响系统位置和强度的预报，不同的数值模式有所差异，ECMWF模式对亚洲地区中高空环流预报的结果更为准确，对弱高空槽系统预报偏差较大。冷涡天气形势下，当各种数值预报模式均预报有降水时，降水量级一致或相差不多，并且日本传真图在秦皇岛附近预报有25 mm左右降水中心时，考虑地形作用，秦皇岛北部山区降水量级可增加一个量级或稍大一些。由于各家数值预报对地形作用难以准确把握，从而对地形诱发的中小尺度系统容易漏报。
中文关键词：
低涡，模式检验，大暴雨
KeyWords：
low vortex, numerical model test, heavy rain
Abstract：
Based on the MICAPS conventional observation data, regional automatic station, satellite cloud pictures, and Doppler weather radar data on June 28 and 29, 2013 in Qinhuangdao area, a local torrential rain process was analyzed. Several numerical products from the aspects of circulation situation, influence system, and precipitation elements were inspected. The results showed that the mesoscale convective complexes and super monomer in linear echo mainly contributed to the short-time strong rainfall in the northern mountainous area. The heavy rain area was located in the TBB maximize gradient. Yanshan mountain terrain lifting effect and mesoscale wind field convergence triggered this process. The numerical model products had certain ability in forecasting rainstorm, but the heavy precipitation center predicted was deviated to the north and failed to capture the heavy rainstorm area ＞ 100 mm. Different numerical models produced different results in terms of the position and intensity of the heavy rain. ECMWF mode was more accurate in predicting mid- and upper-level air circulation in the Asian region, but it was less accurate in predicting weak upper trough system. When all numerical prediction models predicted to rain in the cold vortex weather situation, the precipitation level was consistent or similar. When the Japanese FAX forecasted about 25 mm rainfall in the vicinity of Qinhuangdao, the precipitation level in the northern mountainous area of Qinhuangdao can be increased by an order of magnitude or larger by including the topographical effects. Because the numerical prediction was difficult to incorporate the terrain effect, the prediction was usually unsatisfactory at the small-meso scale system.