国家级降水融合产品在山洪模拟中的适用性研究
Applicability of National Precipitation Fusion Products in Mountain Flood Simulation
中文摘要：
利用SRTM数字高程DEM模型、土地利用数据，以ArcGIS为平台，以綦江流域为研究对象，基于自动气象站降水数据、多源降水融合产品等5种不同降水数据，采用泰森多边形法计算其逐小时流域面雨量，驱动FloodArea水动力模型，对2021年8月8日16时—9日10时綦江流域出现的一次山洪过程进行山洪淹没模拟，对得到的模拟水深与实测水位进行效果检验。结果表明：1）5种降水数据模拟的淹没水深在5个水文站的相关系数均较高，96%的相关系数达到了0.93，其中AWS、RT和NRT降水数据模拟的淹没深度效果都较好，相关系数最高可达0.9857；2）整体上模拟水位与实测水位的过程变化基本一致，但在峰值上，模拟水位具有1～2 h的滞后性，模拟的洪峰水位略微偏低；3）5种降水数据模拟的山洪过程拟合度较高，确定性系数均达到了0.8715以上，96%的比例达到了0.9215，其中最高为0.9831；4）5种降水数据模拟的山洪可信度较高，纳什效率系数均达到了0.8687以上，96%的比例达到了0.9202，其中最高为0.9817。
中文关键词：
CMPAS，FloodArea，山洪模拟，泰森多边形
KeyWords：
CMPAS, FloodArea model, mountain torrent simulation, Tyson polygon
Abstract：
By using SRTM digital elevation DEM model and land use data, we took ArcGIS as the platform and Qijiang Rivern Basin as the research object, and adopted five different types of precipitation data such as automatic weather station precipitation data and multi-source precipitation fusion products to calculate the hourly basin area rainfall with Tyson polygon method.The FloodArea hydrodynamic model was driven to simulate the water depth of a mountain flood process in Qijiang River Basin from 16:00 8 August to 10:00 9 August 2021. And then the simulated water depth and the measured water level were compared and analyzed. The study shows that 1) the correlation coefficients between the simulated depth and the measured depth from five types of precipitation data all reach a relatively high level, with 96% as high as 0.93. The highest correlation coefficient of 0.9857 can be found in AWS, RT and NRT data; 2) On the whole, the simulated water level is basically consistent with the measured water......