水文降水资料引入精细化气象服务中
Usability Evaluation of Hydrological Precipitation Data Used in Refined Meteorological Services
中文摘要：
社会各行业对精细气象服务能力的要求越来越高，亟需更多的观测数据用以提升精细化气象预报服务产品的准确性和时效性。基于2020年7月至2021年6月的水文和气象观测站降水资料，从降水资料稳定性、两种降水资料的相关度和重要天气过程个例等多个角度进行了分析评估。水文降水资料的全年稳定上报站点数量为1.4万，可达气象降水资料站数的1/3以上；水文与气象的降水资料之间具有较高的时空一致性，总体相关度超过0.8；另外，从降水过程个例分析可看出，引入水文站降水数据可有效增加雨量站网密度，进而显著提升强降水的探测能力。基于以上结论，引入水文观测数据进行融合应用可为短临降水预报实时订正、降水独立检验评估以及实时灾害性天气服务等多个气象预报服务业务提供支撑。
中文关键词：
水文，气象，降水，服务，评估
KeyWords：
hydrology, meteorology, precipitation, services, evaluation
Abstract：
As various sectors of the society are increasing their requirements for refined meteorological services, it is imperative to offer larger amount of observation data to improve the accuracy and efficiency of refined meteorological service products. Based on the precipitation data from hydrological and meteorological stations from July 2020 to June 2021, data stability, the correlation of the two types of data and key synoptic process cases are analyzed. It is found that the number of stable stations for hydrological precipitation data is 14000, equivalent to 1/3 of meteorological stations. The hydrological and meteorological precipitation data exhibit high spatial-temporal consistency, their correlation higher than 0.8. In addition, the case studies show that the integration of hydrological and meteorological precipitation data can effectively increase the density of rainfall stations, which can significantly improve the detection capability of heavy precipitation. The analysis reveals that the integration of two kinds of precipitation data sets can promote the development of meteorological services such as real-time revision of nowcasting, independent precipitation testing and severe weather services.