强对流实况分析关键技术与产品研制进展和展望
Progress and Prospects of Key Technologies and Product Development for Severe Convective Real-Time Analysis
中文摘要：
加强短时强降水、雷暴大风、冰雹和龙卷等强对流天气的科学认识对防灾减灾等精细化气象预报服务具有重要意义。如何基于过去和现在的观测去分析当前的强对流天气发生、发展情况是一个重要和具有挑战性的问题。调研了美国、欧洲、亚洲、加拿大和澳大利亚等强对流实况分析业务系统的现状，并从多角度对比了美国的预警决策支持系统—综合信息（WDSS-II）、奥地利的综合分析集成临近预报（INCA）和中国的强对流天气短时临近预报（SWAN）业务系统的现状。此外，针对强对流实况分析产品与预报实践的结合，调研了对强对流实况分析产品应用具有启发性的美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的试验平台和春季预报试验。同时，梳理了国内外强对流实况分析研究技术动向，对比了快速更新同化数值模式、概念模型预报技术以及识别追踪和外推预报技术等强对流预报预警技术的优缺点，并回顾了近年来国内外各大主流机构的强对流实况分析人工智能解决方案，为我国今后的强对流实况分析体系建设提供借鉴和思考，为后续开展具有自身特色的强对流多源融合实况分析研究奠定基础。
中文关键词：
强对流实况分析，识别追踪，预报预警，数值模式，人工智能，应用反馈
KeyWords：
severe convective real-time analysis, identification and tracking, forecasting and early-warning, numerical model, artificial intelligence, application feedback
Abstract：
Strengthening the scientific understanding of severe convective weather such as short-term intense precipitation, thunderstorm gale, hail, and tornadoes is crucial for precision weather forecasting services such as for disaster prevention and mitigation. How to analyze the current status and development of severe convective weather based on past and present observations is an important and challenging issue. The current status of mainstream operational systems in the United States, Europe, Asia, Canada, and Australia was investigated. In particular, the current status of the operational systems, including the Warning Decision Support System-Integrated Information (WDSS-II) in the United States, the Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) in Austria, and the Severe Weather Automatic Nowcasting System (SWAN) in China, is compared from multiple perspectives. According to the integration of severe convective real-time analysis products and forecasting practice, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) testbed and spring forecast tests were also investigated because of their great inspirations for the application of severe convective real-time analysis products. At the same time, the technical trends of domestic and international research on the severe convective real-time analysis were studied. By comparing and analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of severe convective forecast and early warning techniques such as rapid update assimilation numerical models, conceptual model forecasting techniques as well as identification, tracking and extrapolation forecasting techniques, and by reviewing recent artificial intelligence solutions of major domestic and international agencies, reflections and suggestions for the severe convective real-time analysis system of China Meteorological Administration were put forward and in the meantime, lay a foundation for subsequent severe convective multi-source fusion real-time analysis with its own characteristics.