安顺市一次局地大暴雨天气漏报原因分析
Cause Analysis of Underreporting of a Local Rainstorm in Anshun Cit
中文摘要：
利用NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料、区域自动站观测资料、雷达资料、FY-2G卫星资料等，分析了2021年8月10—11日安顺市局地大暴雨的天气系统、环境条件、TBB特征、雷达回波特征等，并结合数值模式预报对本次局地大暴雨天气进行分析和反思，结果表明：1）本次局地大暴雨天气夜雨特征明显，且以对流性降雨为主；2）安顺市北部的大暴雨是副热带高压外围低槽配合冷空气导致的，安顺市西部的大暴雨是滇南倒槽北抬加强导致的；3）导致安顺市北部的大暴雨天气系统较为深厚，导致安顺市西部的大暴雨天气系统较为浅薄；4）数值预报对副热带高压东西移动的强度和位置偏差，以及对滇南倒槽发展变化的位置偏差，是本次局地大暴雨天气漏报的主要原因。
中文关键词：
大暴雨，局地，漏报，倒槽
KeyWords：
rainstorm, local, underreporting, inverted slot
Abstract：
Combined with various numerical models, the weather system, environmental conditions, TBB characteristics and radar echo characteristics of the local heavy rain in Anshun City from August 10 to 11, 2021 are analyzed by using NCEP 1°×1°reanalysis data, regional automatic station observation data, radar data and FY-2G satellite data to reflect on the local heavy rain weather forecast during that period of time. The results show that (1) The local rainstorm has obvious characteristics of night rain and convective precipitation; (2) The heavy rain in the north of Anshun City is caused by the low trough around the subtropical high combined with cold air, while the heavy rain in the west of Anshun City is triggered by the strengthening of the northward uplift of the inverted trough in southern Yunnan; (3) The synoptic system leading to the heavy rainfall in the north is relatively deep, while the synoptic system causing the rainstorm in the west is relatively shallow; (4)The main reasons for the underreporting of the local heavy rain are the prediction deviation of the intensity and position of the east-west movement of the subtropical high and the prediction deviation of the development of the inverted trough in southern Yunnan.