青海高原人工消（减）雪试验效果分析探讨
Effect Analysis on Artificial Snow Dispersal Experiment in Qinghai Province
中文摘要：
利用2017年1—5月在青海省泽库县实施的人工消（减）雪试验，应用气象台站和布设的测雪点数据，通过双比分析方法分析人工消（减）雪作业效果，探讨了消（减）雪作业设计，使用物理检验分析消（减）雪试验过程。结果显示：通过4次过程作业前、后的液态水含量分析，所选作业高度较合适，水汽条件较好，作业后整体回波强度减弱，回波体积减小，后续回波有继续发展，但持续时间较短；双比分析方法得到4次相对消（减）雪1%，绝对消（减）雪0.03 mm。通过对作业过程的定量统计分析和基于观测资料的定性分析表明，人工消（减）雪作业有一定的减雪作用，但作业不适当也有可能增大降雪量而形成雪灾，还需通过大量实例总结和验证开展人工消（减）雪的技术可行性和技术方案。
中文关键词：
人工消（减）雪，效果分析
KeyWords：
artificial snow dispersal, effect analysis
Abstract：
Based on weather station data and snowfall data from the target area and the contrast area, the effect of artificial snow dispersal in Zeku County of Qinghai Province from January to May 2017 is analyzed with double contrast method. The design of the operation for artificial snow dispersal is discussed and the mechanism of the operation is analyzed by physical investigation. According to the research results, the change of liquid water content before and after the four operations proves that the selected operation height was appropriate, with proper water vapor conditions. After operation, the echo intensity decreased, so did the echo volume. Although the echo continued to develop, the duration shortened. Based on double contrast method, it is found that, for the four experiments, the relative reduction of snow is 1% and the absolute reduction of snow is 0.03 mm. The quantitative statistical analysis of the operation processes and the qualitative analysisof the observation data show that the artificial snow dispersal has a certain effect on snow reduction. However, it may also increase the snowfall with improper operation. Hence the technical feasibility and plans for artificial snow dispersal have to be validated and summarized by a large number of experiments.