基于多源数据的三江源区雪灾风险评估
Research of Snow Disaster Risk Assessment in the Three-River-Source Area Based on Multi-Source Data
中文摘要：
三江源区是青海省雪灾最为严重的地区，对畜牧业影响较大。利用1961—2020年逐日积雪深度气象资料分析了三江源区冬季雪灾时空分布特征，运用MOD10A1积雪遥感数据提取积雪覆盖天数，选择最低气温、雪灾强度及积雪覆盖天数作为致灾因子，高程和坡向作为孕灾环境，地均人口、牲畜存栏及土地利用类型作为承灾体，构建雪灾风险评估模型，并评估三江源区冬季雪灾风险。结果表明：三江源区冬季雪灾呈增加趋势，称多地区最为严重，进入21世纪后雪灾极端性明显加剧；称多、玛多等地因最低气温低、雪灾强度大及积雪覆盖天数多导致致灾因子危险性最高，孕灾环境敏感性自东向西增强，人口及牲畜存栏均在东部地区较多，而草地在中、东部地区广泛分布，因此三江源区以中等承灾体脆弱区为主；基于所选因子建立三江源区冬季雪灾风险评估模型，并进行雪灾风险评估，三江源区中部称多、达日、甘德、同德、泽库及玛沁西部为雪灾风险较高的地区。
中文关键词：
三江源区，多源数据，积雪，雪灾，风险评估
KeyWords：
the Three-River-Source area, multi-source data, snow cover, snow disaster, risk assessment
Abstract：
The Three-River-Source area is featured with the most serious snow disaster in Qinghai Province, which has a great impact on animal husbandry. Using the daily snow depth data from 1961 to 2020, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of winter snow disasters in the Three-River-Source area are analyzed. MOD10A1 data are also used to extract snow cover days. The minimum temperature, snow disaster intensity and snow cover days are selected as disaster causing factors, the elevation and slope direction are selected as disaster environmental factors, and the population, livestock and type of land use are selected as disaster bearing factors to build the snow disaster risk assessment model to assess the winter snow disaster risk in the Three-River-Source area. The results show that snow disasters in winter of the Three-River-Source area show an increasing trend, with Chengduo hit most seriously, and with the extremity obviously intensified after entering the 21st century. Chengduo and Maduo are the areas with the lowest winter temperature, the strongest snow disaster intensity and the largest number of snow cover days in the Three-River-Source area, leading to the highest risk of snow disaster causing factors. Moreover, the sensitivity of snow disaster environmental factors increases from east to west. The eastern region is home to relatively large population and livestock, while grassland is widely distributed in the central and eastern regions. So the vulnerability of disaster bearing factors in the Three-River-Source area is mainly medium. Based on the selected factors, the snow disaster risk assessment model is established to assess the winter snow disaster risk in the Three-River-Source area. Chengduo, Dari, Gande, Zeku and the west of Maqin are the areas with high snow disaster risk.