宁夏流感与气象条件关系研究
Analysis of the Relationship Between Influenza and Meteorological Conditions in Ningxia
中文摘要：
利用2005—2021年流感样病例（ILI）资料和同期气象资料，分析近17年来宁夏流感的流行特征，在月尺度上，探讨流感发病率与气象条件的关系，并初步揭示高发年份的气候特征。结果表明：宁夏流感年平均发病率为0.20‰，高发时段为冬、春季，夏季发病率最低；当月发病率与上月气象要素的关系密切，气温、气压、风速和日照时数是影响流感发病的关键气象因子；基于GAM模型的气象因素交互项对ILI例数变化影响效应反映出ILI例数的变化受多种气象因子共同作用；结合可视化图形直观分析主要气象因子间交互作用对流感样病例（ILI）例数变化的影响特征，发现气温是影响ILI发病的主导气象因素，拉尼娜事件易引起宁夏次年频繁的冷空气入侵，使得次年流感易出现高发。此结论可为流感发病风险的预测预报提供参考依据。
中文关键词：
流行特征，气象条件，广义相加模型，拉尼娜
KeyWords：
epidemic characteristic, meteorological condition, generalized additive model, La Nina
Abstract：
Based on the influenza-like illness (ILI) data and the meteorological data from 2005 to 2021, this paper analyzes the epidemic characteristics of influenza in Ningxia in recent 17 years, discusses the relationship between its incidence rate and meteorological conditions on a monthly scale, and preliminarily reveals the climatic characteristics of high-incidence years. The results show that the average annual incidence of influenza in Ningxia is 0.20‰, and the high-incidence periods are winter and spring, with the lowest incidence in summer. The monthly incidence of influenza is closely related to the meteorological factors of the previous month, and the temperature, air pressure, wind speed and sunshine duration are the key meteorological factors affecting the ILI. Based on GAM model, it is found that the influence of the interaction of meteorological factors on the number of ILI cases reflects the fact that the variation of the number of ILI cases is affected by multiple meteorological factors. Combined with visual graphic analysis, the study further shows that temperature is the dominant meteorological factor affecting the incidence of influenza. The frequent intrusion of cold air in Ningxia in the year after La Nina event makes the year prone to high frequency of influenza. This conclusion can provide a reference for the prediction of influenza risk.