城市化对气温变化影响研究进展
Research Progress of the Impact of Urbanization on Surface Air Temperature Variations
中文摘要：
人类活动导致的外强迫是气候变暖归因的重点之一，而城市化（土地利用外强迫）是人类活动外强迫中的一个重要方面。国内外城市化对气候变暖的影响研究，在过去几十年间取得了很大进展，很有必要对其进行系统性总结及梳理。本文重点梳理了国内外背景站选取的主要方法，城市化对单个城市、区域及全球/半球气温的影响，城市化对极端气温的影响，城市化对气温影响的订正5个方面的内容。总体看来，城市化对单个城市及区域尺度气温序列的影响是十分显著的，而对半球及全球尺度气温序列的影响则没有一致的结论；城市化不仅对城市及区域尺度的平均气温有较大影响，而且对与城市及区域尺度最高、最低气温有关的极端气温事件也有重要影响。合理订正气温变化中的城市化影响，是改善气候变化监测、检测和预测结果的重要问题之一，目前有关城市热岛效应的时空分布特征及其对气温变化趋势的影响已有大量研究，但对于合理订正站点气温序列中的城市化影响工作还十分欠缺，在进行未来气候变化预估时也很少考虑城市化的影响，不少针对区域气候变暖的研究也没有考虑城市化的影响，这将严重低估城市或区域未来的变暖幅度以及过高估计区域历史气温的变暖幅度。最后，对城市化影响区域气温未来的研究方向进行了探讨。
中文关键词：
城市化影响，平均气温，极端气温事件，偏差订正
KeyWords：
impact of urbanization, average temperature,extreme temperature events, bias correction
Abstract：
The external forcing caused by human activities is one of the key contributors to climate warming, and urbanization (external forcing of land use) is an important aspect of the external forcing of human activities. The research on the impact of urbanization on climate warming has made great progress in the past few decades both domestically and abroad, and therefore it is necessary to summarize the previous studies. This paper mainly includes five aspects, the main methods of selecting background stations in China and in abroad, the impact of urbanization on the temperatures of individual cities, regions, and the globe/hemisphere, the impact of urbanization on extreme temperatures, and the correction of urbanization impacts. Overall speaking, the impact of urbanization on temperature series on a single city and regional scale is very significant, while no consistent conclusion concerning the impact on the hemispheric and global scale temperature series has been drawn. Urbanization not only has impact on the average temperature at the city and regional scales, but also exhibits important impact on extreme temperature events related to the highest and lowest temperature at the city and regional scales. Reasonable correction of the urbanization impact on temperature changes is one of the important issues for the improvement of climate change monitoring, detection and prediction. There are a lot of researches on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of urban heat island effect and its influence on the trend of temperature changes, but no sufficient attention is paid to reasonable correction of the urbanization influence on the station temperature series. Moreover, the impact of urbanization is rarely considered when predicting future climate change. Many studies on regional climate warming have not considered the impact of urbanization, either. This will seriously underestimate the extent of future warming in cities or regions and overestimate the extent of regional historical temperature warming. Finally, the future research direction of urbanization affecting regional temperature is discussed.