需求引领的协同创新机制研究和启示——基于数值预报协同的多案例研究
Research and Enlightenment of Demand-Led Collaborative Innovation Mechanism: Multi Case Study Based on Numerical Prediction Collaboration
中文摘要：
数值预报是气象事业高质量发展面临的攻坚难题之一。数值预报的发展迫切需要与预报其他环节，以及与气象观测、服务之间的协同，迫切需要科研和业务之间的协同。基于气象业务内、外协同的时代要求，以及创新生态系统的理论体系，选择美国和中国以数值预报为核心，上下游业务协同、科研业务相融合的案例，通过深度解析个案，并将案例进行横向重复验证和比较研究，从联合方式、预报精准需求导向、业务和科研融合的研究型业务范式及背景基础四个维度深入剖析，发现业务协同中出现创新生态系统的新形态，组织结构中统筹管理与业务运作有机结合，需求导向和技术导向协同正向反馈，以及全要素多维度协同创新的经验。基于案例分析，提出建立更具整体性的内部协作联动，健全不同生态位的协同与治理方式，以及多主体跨学科协同自循环驱动的三方面协同机制。
中文关键词：
数值预报，观测试验，协同创新生态系统，案例研究
KeyWords：
numerical prediction, observation experiment, collaborative innovation ecosystem, case study
Abstract：
Numerical prediction is one of the critical problems to be addressed for the high-quality development of meteorological cause. The development of numerical prediction urgently needs the coordination not only with other aspects of prediction, but also with meteorological observation and service. It also needs the coordination between scientific research and operation. To meet the requirements of the times for the internal and external collaboration of meteorological operations, and based on the theoretical system of innovative ecosystem, we choose the cases of the United States and China, which take numerical forecasting as the core, combine upstream and downstream operations, and coordinate scientific research and operation. This study deeply analyzes the cases, and conducts horizontal repeated verification and comparative study on the cases. The cases are analyzed from four dimensions: joint mode, demand-led accurate forecasting, research-oriented operation paradigm that integrates research and operation, and background basis. It is found that there is a new form of innovation ecosystem in operation collaboration. The combination of overall management and operation, and the positive feedback of demand-oriented and technology-oriented collaboration are identified in the organizational structure, so does the experience of multi-dimensional total-factor collaborative innovation. Based on the case analysis, it is proposed to establish a more integrated internal collaboration and linkage mechanism, improve the coordination and governance methods of different niches, and set up multi-subject, interdisciplinary, and selfcirculation-driven coordination mechanism for three-side collaboration.