“The application of ensemble ideas to monthly (and seasonal) forecasting was not controversial. What was more controversial is that ensemble forecast methods should be developed within what was referred to as ‘the limit of deterministic predictability’. Medium-range ensemble forecasting was treated with scepticism. Instead of probabilistic prediction, the thought at the time was that we should be trying to ‘forecast the forecast skill’ of the deterministic forecast. This turned out to be a forlorn hope, though it led to some very important scientific spin offs, such as how to perturb the initial conditions in a medium-range ensemble forecast.”

　　“集合预报的思想应用于月（和季节）预报没有争议。争议在于集合预报方法的开发应该结合被称为‘确定性的可预报性之极限’展开。中期集合预报值得怀疑，而概率预报的思想，曾经是尝试针对确定预报‘预报预报技巧’。这样的结果是孤注一掷，尽管带来了一些很重要的科学副产品，如在中期集合预报中如何扰动初始条件。”

　　——曾经在欧洲中期天气预报中心开创概率预报，现在牛津大学工作的TimPalmer，一直在理论和实践两条路上，积极探索包括集合预报方法在内的概率预报的学科和业务发展方向，其在会上的一席话，或许点出了集合预报作为一种预报途径，需要找到与经典理论的融合和交叉点。