全球数据处理和预报系统发展及展望
Development and Outlook of Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System
中文摘要：
全球数据处理和预报系统（GDPFS）是世界气象组织（WMO）世界天气监视网计划中负责制作和向WMO会员提供气象分析和预报产品的业务系统。GDPFS由世界气象中心、区域专业气象中心和国家级气象中心构成三级业务体系。介绍了GDPFS的发展现状和相关数值预报模式的进展，并分析了GDPFS发展面临的挑战。进一步结合WMO未来“无缝隙GDPFS”的发展战略，指出无缝隙预报的内涵包括时空尺度无缝隙、学科融合无缝隙和影响预报无缝隙。未来无缝隙GDPFS的发展将聚焦滚动评估用户需求、科技引领业务发展、建立质量管理框架等方面，实现向WMO会员和各国提供更高质量的天气、水、气候和环境信息，支持用户做出更明智的决策。
中文关键词：
无缝隙预报，世界气象组织，数值天气预报
KeyWords：
seamless prediction, World Meteorological Organization, numerical weather prediction
Abstract：
The Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) belongs to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)’s World Weather Watch plan. It is responsible for preparing and making available to the WMO member’s meteorological analyses and forecast products. It is organized as a three-level system of the World Meteorological Centers, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers and the National Meteorological Centers. This paper introduced the current status of GDPFS and progress of relevant numerical prediction models. The challenges facing the development of GDPFS are analyzed. Combined with the WMO “seamless GDPFS” strategy, it further pointed that seamless prediction includes seamless time-space scale, seamless discipline integration and seamless impact-based forecast. Future development of seamless GDPFS will focus on rolling review of user requirement, advancement of operation led by science and technology, and quality control system. It is expectedthat GDPFS will provide better information of weather, climate, water and environmental to make better decisions.